"In vaginal sex, it's 10 per 10,000 acts. In anal sex, it's 50 per 10,000 acts."

10 per 10,000 acts is 0.1%.

While 50 per 10,000 acts is 0.5%.

Miniscule.

But now Dr. Myron Cohen, one of the world's leading experts in infectious disease and one of the people responsible for those figures, speaking to the President's Advisory Council on HIV / AIDS in June 2006, comes forward to say that he was wrong, and that the actual risk is much, much, much greater:

But these sexual transmission numbers are an incredible mess and I won't tell you how we got into this mess, but that mess has helped give a bad message to people. That message that we've sent to people is that it takes thousands of episodes of intercourse for HIV to be transmitted and that really is not true basically. These numbers, and if there is time for the discussion, I can explain how we made such a mess out of this, but the methods we used confused the message and we used a set of methods in the late `80s, early 90s, that made an incredible mess out of our understanding of HIV transmission.

...

the transmission probably is not 3,000 episodes of intercourse. It's more like 20 or 30 episodes of intercourse. So the first shocking message is that HIV is not so inefficient.

And we know that most people on the planet have sex about eight to ten times a month until they start getting older. I'm not going to go into that too much. But if you look at the young people here 15 to 24 studies have been done in China, Chicago, France, England and there's all these books, most by a guy named Laumann called Sex in France and Sex in England and Sex in China and when you do very careful surveys you find out that people have sex about eight times, ten times a month. It's very difficult then to get to 3,000 episodes of intercourse for most of us in this room, maybe even in a lifetime let alone in enough time to have a transmission event.

Then you see as you get older, we start lumping the numbers because sexual intercourse really gets reduced and I don't want to get too personal about this. But the number could get below the line. Actually if you extend this out because you're telling people not to be sexually active. So it gets lower and lower and lower. But the point is that we don't think that the transmission probabilities as published throughout the `80s and early `90s are correct. ...

So now Dr. Cohen, who by the way supports condom campaigns and who is not a stooge of the religious right, thinks the probability in vaginal is about one in 20 or one in 30.

One in 20 is 5%.

A lot higher than 0.1%.

Then we get to the question about anal.

And Dr. Cohen's response:

you can't win against anal intercourse. It's almost impossible.

Anal intercourse is a really bad sexual practice for HIV transmission. It changes the equation. The efficiency is probably one in ten or one in eight.

Previously, we'd been told, remember, and this was in 2005, that the probability for anal was 50 per 10,000 acts, or 0.5%.

Now we're told that it's one in ten or one in eight.

That's somewhere between 10% and 12.5%.

Do I trust this new figure?

NO.

I suspect that it's at least one in three or one in two -- 50%.

Especially since Halperin told us way back in 2002 that a woman was 10 to 20 times more likely to seroconvert due to anal than vaginal.

And 10 times 5% is 50%.

Do you understand?

Both in 1979 and as recently as 2005, medical authorities were giving out really bad information about sex and risk.

In 1979 it's that there was no risk;

and as late as 2005 that the risk was extremely low.

When actually it's quite high.

Do you think Mr Andriote, who says he seroconverted in 2005, was basing his decisions on those 2005 figures: that the probability of HIV acquisition by the receptive partner in unprotected anal sex is 50 per 10,000 acts?

I have to wonder.

Here's another example.

For years we were told there would be a cure.

Indeed, SF AIDS Foundation had a slogan -- "Be here for the cure."

Yet there's no cure in sight.

Here's why:

How HIV Infects Humans -- Cannot Currently Be Eradicated

Each time HIV reproduces itself, it uses its integrase protein to insert a copy of its genome into a chromosome. That copy becomes a permanent archive of the virus's genetic program, like a tiny file burned onto a computer hard drive. While patients are kept healthy when those copies are "suppressed" with multiple daily antiviral medicines, they are never cured. Stopping the medicines even briefly lets HIV repopulate the body with many millions of copies, like a computer virus spreading around the world from a single infected computer.

So -- while scientists are working on it, there won't be a cure anytime soon.

Which is why guys like Dr. Franklyn Judson of the PACHA say, "You can't treat your way out of this disease."

YOU HAVE TO PREVENT.

The people who've survived the epidemic are those who, like me, rejected the conventional wisdom, whatever it was at the time, trusted their instincts, and lived their own, true, authentic, WARRIOR, lives.

Those who trusted the establishment -- died in droves, and are now getting infected in droves.

And that establishment continues to make MISTAKES.

I wrote to Dr. Cohen regarding his presentation, and explained who I was and what we were about.

He wrote back supporting what he'd said about the dangers of anal, and then adding "I suspect properly used condoms are very effective."

I wrote back and said, "Based on what?"

What the Surgeon General has said?

What Buchbinder et al have said?

The Surgeon General has said that even with a condom, "anal intercourse is simply too dangerous to practice."

Buchbinder noted that there was virtually NO difference in risk between anal with a condom and anal without a condom.

So why, having said that "you can't win against anal," then say that "properly used condoms are very effective?"

I'll tell you why:

Because it's the conventional wisdom and dominant paradigm of AIDS prevention today.

BUT ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AT THE RATES OF NEW INFECTION AND AT THE TOTAL NUMBER OF MEN INFECTED -- TO SEE THAT CONDOMS DON'T WORK.

THAT CONDOMS ARE A FAILED STRATEGY.

The same is true of ANAL.

Anyone looking at anal can see that it's a mess.

A disaster.

That it's DANGEROUS, DIRTY, AND DEGRADING.

But no one wants to talk about it.

Culturally and politically it's not acceptable to do that.

Too bad.

Dr. Cohen was the person who gave the world that bad information about risk.

Now he's corrected himself.

For which I'm grateful.

But when will he correct himself about condoms?

In five years?

Guys, my work is about challenging the dominant culture, the conventional wisdom, the dominant paradigm, the received ideas, the notions that EVERYBODY will tell you are true.

There's no such thing as an untreatable STD.

WRONG.

The risk of acquiring HIV is low.

WRONG.

AIDS will soon be cured.

WRONG.

Condoms are safe.

WRONG.

Anal is the cat's pjs, it's the alpha and omega of "gay sex," and everything in buttfuck land is peachy keen.

WRONG.

REALITY: Everything in buttfuck land is fucked up because it's been fucked up the butt.

It's DISEASED, IT'S DIRTY, IT'S DEGRADED.

The Gay Establishment won't talk about it.

They're fools.

The religious right won't talk about it.

They're fools and knaves.

Scoundrels.

Who use the Gospel of Christ to MAKE MONEY.

Who've turned the bride of Christ into a WHORE.

Guys -- the only way to survive in this world is to be TRUE:

to YOURSELF;

to your WARRIOR BROTHERS;

and to the MANLY VIRTUES which have guided MEN on this earth for millenia:

MASCULINITY, STRENGTH, FIGHTING SPIRIT, COURAGE, FIDELITY, HONOR, INTEGRITY, and EQUALITY.

And understanding that those values flow from MANHOOD, from PHALLUS, and from the aggressive mating of PHALLUS with PHALLUS.

That PHALLUS 2 PHALLUS is at the root of NATURAL MASCULINITY.

That NATURAL MASCULINITY REQUIRES PHALLIC BONDING.

The true and ultimate WARRIOR BOND.

THE WARRIOR BOND IS PHALLIC.

THE WARRIOR BOND IS PHALLUS TO PHALLUS.

And that the values which flow from a male-male sexual practice predicated upon PHALLUS TO PHALLUS -- equality, mutuality, strength, honor, Masculine friendship and Warrior brotherhood -- are universal human values.

HUMAN values.

The values of MEN.

BROTHERS AND WARRIORS --

FIGHT BACK.

Bill Weintraub

© All material Copyright 2006 by Bill Weintraub. All rights reserved.