Bill Weintraub:

"Having a low load doesn't mean you're OK"

Why does this matter?

Because, as I wrote about in the post titled Blindsided, the HIV / medical establishment has frequently been wrong on crucial issues of danger and infectivity.

For example, we were told for years that one's chance of acquiring HIV in any one sexual encounter with an infected person was very low.

For vaginal sex, as low as 1 in 3000.

And for anal penetration, as low as 1 in 200.

Now, we're being told, per Dr. Myron Cohen's presentation to the President's Advisory Council on HIV / AIDS (PACHA), that the actual efficiency of HIV is:

for vaginal, 1 in 20 to 1 in 30;

for anal, 1 in 8 or 1 in 10.

The real figure for anal, I think, and based on Halperin's work, is even higher: 1 in 3 or 1 in 2.

But no matter how you cut it, the public was very much misled for years about the actual risk.

Now we're being told the same thing about viral load.

As the article explains, it used to be thought that viral load was a predictor of T-cell destruction:

the higher the load, the more destruction.

And the more destruction, the faster the progression to disease -- that is, frank AIDS.

Now we're being told that isn't true.

In fact, [the researcher] added, "In our study, we had about 10 percent of patients with low viral loads that had extra rapid disease progression, so people should know that having a low load doesn't mean you're OK."

"Having a low load doesn't mean you're OK."

Instead, the docs say, look at the T-cell count.

Well, I lived through the era of reliance on T-cell counts, and I can tell you that's not foolproof either.

Oh, you say, but I don't have HIV so none of this matters.

But it does matter.

Because, you see, for years we were also told that having a low viral low, such as guys taking anti-retro-virals (ART) often do, probably meant that the guys weren't infectious.

Maybe they're not.

Would you like to bet your life on it?

If the docs were wrong about low viral load and disease progression, couldn't they and the community be wrong about low viral load and infectivity?

Just as the eminent Dr. Cohen, one of the world's leading infectious disease and HIV experts, was wrong about the efficiency -- the degree of infectivity -- of HIV?

See, one of the reasons there's a big push to get everyone tested is that many people think that if folks get tested, they'll get treated, and if they get treated, they'll be less infectious.

This new study suggests that may not be true.

Which is why experts like Dr. Cohen and Dr. Judson of the PACHA keep insisting "We can't treat our way out of this epidemic."

We need to prevent.

Fact is, a lot of people -- specifically gay men -- have made a lot of decisions based on BAD information.

Such as: it doesn't matter if I don't use a condom this time because my chance of getting infected is only 1 in 200.

WRONG.

Or: he may be poz but if he is chances are he's on antivirals and his viral load is low so he's not infectious.

WRONG.

Then what happens is the guy gets infected and he says -- Boy, was I unlucky.

WRONG.

It's not a matter of luck.

It's what Cohen said:

the efficiency of rectal intercourse changes everything because of the number of dendrite cells, receptors and trauma. So you can never overwhelm, you can't win against anal intercourse.

Anal intercourse is a really bad sexual practice for HIV transmission. It changes the equation.

It's not a matter of luck and it's not a question of odds.

It's a matter of fact: You can't win against anal.

Because when it comes to risk --

It's the anal.

Nothing else matters.

Now, I said there's a lot of BAD information out there.

Here's some GOOD information:

FROT does not transmit HIV.

FROT is incredibly HOT.

Stick with the hottest M2M sex on the planet, stick with SEX the way GOD and Nature intended sex to be, and you don't have to worry about HIV.

Of course you should be Faithful too, you shouldn't be hopping from partner to partner, using your fellow MEN as though they were pieces of meat.

They're not.

You're not.

I'm telling you the truth about Frot, I'm telling you the truth about anal and HIV, and I'm telling you the truth about you.

Listen to me.

Or you can listen to the AIDS establishment.

Which last year was telling you that the efficiency of anal was 1 in 200 and this year is telling you that it's 1 in 8;

and which last year was telling you that having a low viral load means you're OK and this year is telling you that "having a low load doesn't mean you're OK."

It's your choice.

Bill Weintraub

© All material Copyright 2006 by Bill Weintraub. All rights reserved.